Thursday, March 8, 2012

Wolfpack On The Bubble

J.P. Giglio of the Raleigh News & Observer took a look yesterday at N.C. State’s chance of getting into the NCAA tournament.  At least two wins, in the ACC tournament which starts at noon today, would certainly help the Wolfpack’s cause.

Giglio: Sixty-eight teams make the tournament, with 37 at-large bids. Twenty-eight teams look relatively safe (see list below). That leaves nine spots for a consensus (from projection sites) of 18 teams. N.C. State is currently considered to be at the bottom of the bubble, with a chance to move up in the ACC tournament.

The Wolfpack, with wins over fellow bubble teams Texas and Miami (two, actually, over the Hurricanes), would welcome a chance to be put up on the committee's "big board" with either of those teams. In theory, head-to-head results matter. They did last year between Virginia Tech and Clemson, but there's no guarantee N.C. State will be compared with Miami or Texas.

If the committee sorts the teams by top 50 wins, the Pack (zero) is at the bottom of the list. If the committee goes by top 100 wins (five), the Pack would be in the middle, and if the committee goes by strength of schedule (23rd), the Pack would be at the top.

If I had to guess — and that's all anyone is doing other than the actual committee members — just based on top 50 and top 100 wins, Colorado State, Seton Hall and BYU should feel good. For recent ACC bubble teams anyway, three top 50 wins has been a magic number, and those three teams hit that number.

N.C. State needs to win as many games at it can in Atlanta. Two would help but three (which would probably mean a win over North Carolina) would be the safest way into the NCAA tournament.

T.A.H.:  It would seem Miami is in a similar postiton...they need to win two games and hope the all the other cards fall in the right places. 

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