Thursday, April 2, 2009

VILLANOVA: DUKE IN WOLVES CLOTHING

The word before the Duke v. Villanova game was that the two teams were mirror images of one another. Based on the final score, we’re gonna have to go “Fun House” mirror, but, general speaking we concur with the assessment. Duke and Villanova are very similar.

Neither team is particularly big and both basically run a four guard game. It now appears that the Wildcats play better defense than the Blue Devils and they have proven they can handle bigger teams by beating Pittsburgh.

But can they beat North Carolina?

Short Answer: Probably not. If Villanova plays their best game and North Carolina does the same, the now seven-point favorite Heels win every time. If Ol’ Roy’s boys lose defensive focus and allow the good Villanova guards to penetrate and kick the ball out, ‘Nova has a chance.

But the math doesn’t bode well for Villanova. While they have more offense contributors than Duke, they still don’t match up well with a bigger more prolific North Carolina.

The Cats starting five of Dante Cunningham (pictured below), Scottie Reynolds (pictured above), Corey Fisher, Corey Stokes and Dwayne Anderson are averaging 16.2, 15.2, 10.7, 9.5 and 9.1 points per game. Other than his last second shot heroics, Reynolds has not played particularly well during the Big Dance.

UNC’s starting five of Psycho-T, Ty “The Toe” Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Danny Green and Deon Thompson average 20.9, 16.3, 15.6, 13.3 and 10.7…

Do the math…Villanova’s starters total 15.8 points per game less, and they aren’t bring the likes of Ed Davis, Bobby Frasor or Tyler Zeller off the bench.

Advantage Carolina.
As previously stated, if UNC plays their game, they win.

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